Thursday, February 25, 2016

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Review of 2015 Homicide Numbers

At year end the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel published a preliminary review of last year's homicides. Their numbers differ slightly from what is shown in the post "Silent Reflection for Each of the Victims of Violence Within an American City" (see post for details). What follows here is a summary of the Journal-Sentinel findings.

The following 2 images are taken from the article, Homicides soar in Milwaukee, along with many theories on cause (http://www.jsonline.com/news/crime/homicides-soar-along-with-many-theories-on-cause-b99653861z1-366891381.html). See earlier post, "Recent Homicide Numbers," for comparison (http://milwaukeegunviolence2015.blogspot.com/2015/05/recent-homicide-numbers.html).
>
 >


The following 4 images are taken from their new online Homicide Tracker page (http://www.jsonline.com/news/crime/milwaukee-homicide-tracker-367120481.html). Some data may fluctuate as police investigations continue:
>
Three images of names and faces:
>
>
>

Deindustrialization and Decentralization of Milwaukee Job Market

The loss of manufacturing jobs in recent decades has altered the employment landscape for many Midwestern cities. Milwaukee is no exception. Manufacturing was and is only a subset of the job market for the region, and what follows is a review of only this sector of the job base, with some comments on the overall job market in recent decades. This post has been made in connection with the post "Silent Reflection for Each of the Victims of Violence Within an American City."

Here are some basic plot points on how the loss of manufacturing jobs, and decentralization of job growth, has affected the city of Milwaukee and the region:

1) Beginning in the 1960s, Milwaukee, along with other Frostbelt cities, shed tens of thousands of well-paying manufacturing jobs.
2) Manufacturing employment, only a subset of the city's total jobs, has shifted from 36% of the city's job base in 1970 to less than 10% today. (Specifics on other job sectors may be discussed later.)
3) Large numbers of new, along with relocated, manufacturing jobs begin to appear in the suburbs around 1970, peaking in 1997.
4) Loss of manufacturing jobs hit African American workers the hardest, as they live primarily in the City of Milwaukee.
5) New jobs (1994-2009), when they do appear, are located primarily in suburbs and WOW counties (Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha).
6) In 2011 less than 17% of City of Milwaukee workers find employment in WOW counties.
7) This has led to a regional segmentation of the metro area labor market.
8) Lack of a robust regional public transportation system has created an unnecessary hurdle to employment for inner city residents (possibly more on this later).
9) Employment/unemployment figures, which are only briefly touched upon here in the text, begin to diverge widely between the City of Milwaukee and the surrounding WOW counties, especially regarding African American males (possibly more on this later).



(Ref. UW-Milw CED report, The Economic State of Milwaukee, 1990-2008)


The following 10 images are taken from a July, 2013, report by the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled, Perspectives on the Current State of the Milwaukee Economy (http://www4.uwm.edu/ced/publications/perspectives.pdf):
(Note on above text: Narrative remains unchanged, however, some percentages are slightly altered using updated numbers below; For Table 32 ref. see 2012 report immediately following.)
>
Table 6, Manufacturing Jobs (this table supersedes version shown in report):
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Economic Census; LEHD. MSA - Metro statistical area.)
>
>
>
>
(Total of all metro area workers, 714,838, and where they work by race)
>
(Total of all metro area workers and where they work;
Compare with Table 20 below from 2007 report)
>
(Percentage of residents from some neighboring municipalities that work in Milwaukee, incl. Milw.;
Mequon in Ozaukee, Germantown in Washington, Brookfield in Waukesha, all else in Milw. County)
>
(Broken down for where residents of each city/county work. Largest share within each row is highlighted.)




The following image is taken from a 2012 report by the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled, Race and Male Employment in the Wake of the Great Recession: Black Male Employment Rates in Milwaukee And the Nation’s Largest Metro Areas (http://www4.uwm.edu/ced/publications/black-employment_2012.pdf):




(Numbers are for the more general "Manufacturing" label, within metro area)


The following 11 images are taken from a March, 2007, report by the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled, The Crisis of Black Male Joblessness in Milwaukee (https://www4.uwm.edu/ced/publications/blackcrisis307.pdf). These figures may seem somewhat outdated, however, since 2007 there's been the Great Recession, with only a nominal recovery thereafter, so although the report is eight years old it is likely still very relevant:

(above percentages refer specifically to City of Milwaukee, as opposed to the metro area)
>
>
>
>
>
(For percentages noted here, refer also to Table 10 above from 2013 report for more recent figures)
>
>
>
(See Table 6 from 2013 report above for latest deindustrialization figures)
>
(Compare with Table 11 above from 2013 report)
>
(Compare to 2010 data shown in Table 10 of 2013 report above)




The following 5 images, focusing on manufacturing numbers between 1997-2007, including salaries and sales, are taken from a 2010 report by the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled The Economic State of Milwaukee, 1990-2008 (http://www4.uwm.edu/ced/publications/milwecon_2010.pdf). Also included is one table comparing manufacturing with other occupations:
>
>
>
>




The following 2 images are taken from a 2002 working paper from the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled The Economic Challenges Facing Milwaukee's Inner City, Statistical Snapshots (http://www4.uwm.edu/ced/snapshot/challenges_innercity.pdf):
(Compare with Table 9 from 2013 report shown above.)
>
(Inner City not defined, but is likely a census tract demarcation. See 2013 report above for more info.)


The following 7 images, comparing Milwaukee manufacturing with other Frostbelt cities, are taken from a 1998 report from the UW-Milwaukee Center for Economic Development, titled The Economic State of Milwaukee: The City and the Region (https://www4.uwm.edu/ced/publications/milwecon/about.cfm). Nothing new here; much of what's included has been incorporated into more recent data described above. Numbers are outdated, as latest year of data is 1992. It is interesting to note, however, that back then the growth in suburban manufacturing was seen as an overall positive for the region:

>
(See Table 6 from 2013 report above for current Milwaukee numbers)
>
>
>
>
>


Monday, February 22, 2016

Incarceration Levels, Milwaukee and Beyond

This post is an attempt to address the high levels of incarceration seen in the U.S. and locally. It has been compiled in connection with the post "Silent Reflection for Each of the Victims of Violence Within an American City." There are a lot of statistics included herein, some of which are a bit confusing. An attempt has been made to review the figures shown here for consistency, however, this study was not meant to be an exhaustive review of online data, only an introductory outline.

The post is organized as such: Definitions; National Figures; Wisconsin Incarceration Figures; Local Incarceration, Focusing on Milwaukee County Residents. Here are some salient features:

1) Internationally, the U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world.
2) The sharp rise in incarceration rates began in the 1970s when President Nixon began the "War on Drugs," and was exacerbated in the 1980s with changes to laws and judicial sentencing guidelines.
3) Nationally, ethnic minorities comprise 60% of the combined state and federal prison population.
4) Nationally, black males comprise 37% of the combined state and federal prison population, with 2.7% of the total Black male population, and 6.4% ages 30-34, serving sentences in 2014. When local jail populations are included, the 2.7% figure jumps to 6.7%.
5) Nationally, Black males ages 18-19 were ten times more likely than Whites to be in prison in 2014.
6) Nationally, for Black males in their 30s, 1 in 10 are in prison or jail on any given day.
7) Because of felony disenfranchisement, 1 in 13 African Americans nationally, and 1 in 11 in Wisconsin, are unable to vote.
8) Wisconsin has the highest male incarceration rate (prison or jail) in the U.S. for Blacks (12.8%) and Native Americans (7.6%).
9) Wisconsin prison population has been 53% minority, and 41% African American, between 1990-2012. (Note that State population in 2010 was 86% White and only 5% African American.)
10) In Wisconsin about 50% of Black males in their 30s have been incarcerated in State correctional facilities between 1990-2012.
11) Wisconsin now budgets more on corrections than higher education.
12) For Milwaukee county residents, 56% of Black males ages 30-34 have been incarcerated in State correctional facilities between 1990-2012.
13) For Milwaukee county male residents, since 1990, department of corrections imprisonments for drug offenses have consisted of over 80% African American.
14) Milwaukee zip code 53206 is the epicenter for the county's Black male correctional population.


-Definitions

Total Correctional Population - Describes population that is incarcerated, both in prison and jail, and is under correctional supervision (probation and parole).

Incarceration Rate - Describes population of inmates under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons and inmates held in local jails.

Imprisonment Rate - Describes population of inmates under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons and sentenced to more than one year. Excludes population sentenced to less than one year, all local jail inmates, and prisoners who are unsentenced.

Prison - "A long-term confinement facility, run by a state or the federal government, that typically holds felons and offenders with sentences of more than 1 year. However, sentence length may vary by state. Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont operate integrated systems, which combine prisons and jails." From U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, September, 2015 Bulletin, (http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p14.pdf).

Jail - "A confinement facility usually administered by a local law enforcement agency [county or city government] that is intended for adults, but sometimes holds juveniles, for confinement before and after adjudication. Such facilities include jails and city or county correctional centers; special jail facilities, such as medical treatment or release centers; halfway houses; work farms; and temporary holding or lockup facilities that are part of the jail’s combined function. Inmates sentenced to jail facilities usually have a sentence of 1 year or less. Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont operate integrated systems, which combine prisons and jails." From U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, September, 2015 Bulletin, (http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p14.pdf).
     Jails also "receive individuals pending arraignment and hold those awaiting trial, conviction, or sentencing; remit probation, parole, and bail-bond violators and absconders; temporarily detain juveniles pending transfer to juvenile authorities; hold mentally ill persons pending transfer to appropriate mental health facilities; hold individuals for the military, for protective custody, for contempt, and for the courts as witnesses; release inmates to the community upon completion of sentence; transfer inmates to federal, state, or other authorities; house inmates for federal, state, or other authorities because of facilities crowding; sometimes operate community-based programs as alternatives to incarceration." From U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, online resource (http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=12). Jails typically house those convicted of a misdemeanor, however, they do hold felons who are awaiting sentencing and transfer to a prison.

Parole - "Parolees are offenders under adult supervision who are conditionally released from prison to serve the remaining portion of their sentence in the community. Prisoners may be released to parole by a parole board decision (discretionary release/discretionary parole), according to provisions of a statute (mandatory release/mandatory parole), through other types of post-custody conditional supervision, or as the result of a sentence to a term of supervised release." From U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, online resource (http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=12).

Probation - "Probationers are offenders under adult supervision who are placed on supervision in the community by the court, generally as an alternative to incarceration. However, some jurisdictions also sentence probationers to a combined short-term incarceration sentence immediately followed by probation, which is referred to as a split sentence. Probationers can have a number of different supervision statuses, including active supervision, which means they are required to regularly report to a probation authority in person, by mail, by telephone, or electronically. Some probationers may be on an inactive status, which means they are excluded from regularly reporting." From U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, online resource (http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=12).


-National Figures

The following 8 images are taken from the U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, December, 2015 Bulletin, titled, Correctional Populations in the U.S., 2014 (http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus14.pdf):

Two images focusing on the total correctional population:
>

One image focusing on the incarcerated population:

One image focusing on the differences between incarcerated and imprisoned populations:

Four images focusing on State populations:
>
>
>


The following 10 images are taken from the U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, September, 2015 Bulletin, titled, Prisoners in 2014 (http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p14.pdf). This paper deals exclusively with the imprisoned population:

Two images highlighting the findings:
>

One focusing in the total imprisoned population:

Three images focusing on age, ethnicity, and rate of imprisoned population:
>
>

Four images focusing on breakdown of State populations:

>
>
>


The following image is taken from U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, online resource (http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=12):

Local jail population, 1980-2013:


The following 6 images are taken from the online resource, The Sentencing Project (http://www.sentencingproject.org/detail/person.cfm?person_id=3). Data is through 2013:

One figure plotting rise of incarceration levels:

One figure plotting rise in the incarcerated population as a result of drug policies:

One figure highlighting the racial disparity of prison population:

One chart highlighting rise of female prison population:
(Note: These numbers are slightly lower than the BJS figures shown above.)

One figure showing grounds for felony disenfranchisement for each of the States:

One figure highlighting the recent shift away from utilizing the juvenile justice system:


The following image is taken from a 2013 report by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Wisconsin's Mass Incarceration of African American Males (http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2013/BlackImprisonment.pdf):
(2011 or 2012)


-Wisconsin Incarceration Figures

The following 2 images are taken from the online resource, The Sentencing Project (http://www.sentencingproject.org/detail/person.cfm?person_id=3). Data is through 2013:
(2011. Per BJS figure shown above, 2013 State prison total is 22,471.)
>
(2011. Per BJS figure shown above, 2013 State total is 22,471.)


The following 3 images are taken from a June, 2014, paper by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Statewide Imprisonment of Black Men in Wisconsin (http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2014/WisconsinStudy.pdf):
 >
 >


The following 6 images are taken from a 2013 report by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Wisconsin's Mass Incarceration of African American Males (http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2013/BlackImprisonment.pdf):

Four charts comparing WI incarceration rates for several ethnic groups to other States, 2010 data:
>
>
>

One chart comparing 2010 WI incarceration rates for several ethnic groups to U.S. averages. Note that U.S. averages shown here include local jail populations, whereas BJS figures shown above for African Americans (2.7%) and Hispanics (1.1%) are only for the prison population:

One chart highlighting the racial disparity in incarceration numbers when comparing drunk driving offenses with drug-related offenses:


The following 2 images are from a 2012 Journal-Sentinel article highlighting the fact that WI now [2011-2013 budget] spends more on prisons than it allocates for higher education (http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/wisconsin-corrections-spending-passes-that-of-uw-system-ua62t4k-166039926.html). This gap has continued for the 2013-2015 State budget, with the UW system now receiving $2.25 billion and corrections $2.32 billion:
>


-Local Incarceration, Focusing on Milwaukee County Residents

The following image is taken from a June, 2014, paper by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Statewide Imprisonment of Black Men in Wisconsin (http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2014/WisconsinStudy.pdf):


The following image is taken from a March, 2014, paper by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, 12 to 1 Income Inequality Among Working Families in Milwaukee County (https://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2014/IncomeInequality.pdf):


The following 13 images are taken from a 2013 report by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Wisconsin's Mass Incarceration of African American Males (http://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2013/BlackImprisonment.pdf). Report does not define the term "released." It is unclear what fraction of the 20,591 men released (1990 to 2011) are/were still under court supervision:
(Period 1990-1/1/2012.)
  >
(It is unclear how these annual totals, which are much higher, relate to the following two figures and the remainder of the report. These totals must incorporate a larger population, recidivists, short-timers, etc., the details of which are unclear. The 26,222 figure used throughout may be a subset of the totals shown here.)
>
(Work with following figure.)
>
(Work with previous figure.)
>
>
(For more on spending see State section above.)
>
(Forty percent of the black males from Milw. Co. incarcerated from 1990 to 2011 were drug offenders. Since 1990, African American males have made up 82% of DOC imprisonments of Milw. Co. male residents with drug offenses. For some reason they've apparently excluded white males from Milw. Co. from this chart-see State section above for a statewide chart.)
>
(Last released total = 18,712; Incarcerated total = 5,221; Sum total = 23,933.)

Two images follow which deal specifically with Milwaukee zip code 53206:
>

Three images follow which deal specifically with the increasing rate of "release" of African American males into Milwaukee County:
(Milw. Co.)
>
>

The following 6 images are taken from a 2009 report by the UW-Milwaukee Employment and Training Institute, titled, Socio-Economic Analysis of Neighborhood Issues Facing Milwaukee Public School Students and their Families (https://www4.uwm.edu/eti/2009/MilwaukeeSocioEconomicAnalysis.pdf). Some of this data is obviously outdated, however, a continuing pattern is visible:
(From http://www.mkedcd.org/purchasingpower/purchpowerzipmap.html)
>
Three images follow which deal exclusively with the nine inner city zip codes (highlighted in above image):
(Total correctional population, plus unsupervised ex-offenders, 1993-2009; see paragraph immediately following.)
>
>
(1993-2008. Highlights recidivism rates; 72% of offenders have been incarcerated 2 or more times, and 49% of offenders have been incarcerated at least 3 times.)
>
Three images follow which deal specifically with the "release" of African American males into Milwaukee County:
(Shows figures for entire county. Each dot represents 5 ex-offenders. Dots distributed randomly within zip codes. For this figure the term "released" is not defined, and it is unclear what percentage are supervised.)
>
(Shows figures for entire county. Not stated in report, however, it is assumed that same note applies as with previous figure regarding dots.)
>
(Shows figures for entire county. For this figure the term "released" is not defined, and it is unclear what percentage are supervised.)